Fernie’s economy has expanded in the past decade as the tourism sector has grown significantly with the scale being on par with other small mountain towns in British Columbia. This past week Destination B.C. revealed three possible scenarios for the impact of the global pandemic on tourism that are not encouraging.
It’s likely the provinces tourism industry will lose 130,000 jobs and drop $16.8 billion in revenue as a result of COVID-19, according to the BC’s tourism marketing organization. In the worst-case scenario, those job losses could total 147,000 and revenue could drop $19 billion, while the best-case scenario suggests job losses could be about 75,000 and industry revenue reduced by $9.8 billion. Last year, the tourism industry accounted for $21.5 billion in combined revenue, employed 166,000 people and provided $1.8 billion in tax revenue, according to the province.
In the best-case scenario offered by Destination B.C., short-haul tourism could start in June and July of this year, with U.S. travel starting in the fall and international travel by December. The worst-case scenario suggested short-haul visitation wouldn’t start until next spring, U.S. visitation next summer and international visitation not until the winter of 2021.
We are fortunate in Fernie for many reasons, most importantly at this time is economic diversification. Our largest industry continues to be coal mining and the BC Government and Teck Coal have worked closely to keep the Elk Valley operations running.
Mineral production and mineral exploration/development are explicitly designated as essential services, so businesses have been able to maintain ongoing operations so long as they can adapt their workplaces to ensure compliance with the orders and recommendations of British Columbia’s public health officer. Teck adapted quickly and has avoided workplace Covid-19 outbreaks.
We are also fortunate to have a significant short-haul tourism market. Regardless of the low price of oil, I anticipate that a significant number of Albertans will be returning to Fernie’s mountains starting this May long weekend, if not sooner.
Earlier this week Dr. Henry and Minister Dix presented the latest modelling on the COVID-19 pandemic. The presentation started with an overview on how the virus has affected people in BC. Currently, very few of the new positive cases are not connected to known outbreaks, which is encouraging and is one of the reasons we will learn more about BC’s “Go Forward Plan” this Wednesday afternoon.
On Wednesday our Premier will provide details about the next steps of our “Go Forward Plan” to slowly and cautiously increase our social connection, and increase our economy, and work. Hopefully Fernie’s small businesses will be able to weather the Covid-19 storm, we do need them to be healthy.
