Fernie skiers and snowboarders, get ready to play in the powder, above average snowfall is on the way! According to UBC Okanagan climatologist Michael Pidwirny, this year’s La Niña is shaping up to deliver colder temperatures and heavier precipitation to BC’s mountains, creating perfect conditions for an epic ski season.
“You should be waxing your skis,” Pidwirny said, offering an exciting outlook for winter enthusiasts. With Fernie Alpine Resort’s chairlifts set to start spinning on November 29th, his forecast couldn’t be more timely. Western Canada’s significant resort openings are happening weekly!
La Niña Brings Snowier Days Ahead
In his annual winter forecast for Western Canada’s ski resorts, Pidwirny analyzed how La Niña and El Niño weather patterns influence winter conditions. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), he predicts a winter that’s “colder than normal, with higher-than-average precipitation for southern British Columbia and western Alberta.”
“The precipitation forecast is very, very good for both November, which we’re seeing right now, and for December,” Pidwirny said. If history is any indication, Fernie is on track for an additional 50 cm of snow above average this season, with over 100 cm more than last year’s lackluster El Niño winter.
Turning the Tide After a Low Snow Season
Last winter’s prolonged El Niño left many ski towns across North America dealing with one of the worst snowpacks in recent memory. But according to Pidwirny’s analysis, BC’s most disappointing ski seasons—such as 2014-15 and 1980-81—were followed by exceptional snowfall in subsequent years.
“This year’s La Niña is like placing a winning bet—it’s not guaranteed, but the odds are definitely in our favor,” he said.
Early Snowfall at Fernie Alpine Resort
Downtown Fernie may have seen its share of rain this past month, but the mountains are a different story. As of November 18, Fernie Alpine Resort is reporting 123 cm of snowfall for the season, with a 59 cm base depth. And with below-freezing temperatures and more snow in the forecast this weekend, conditions leading up to opening day look promising. The Morrissey Ridge Snow Plot is showing that Fernie is tracking the 30 year average.
“December should be epic,” Pidwirny added, predicting heavy snowfall and excellent conditions as the season gets underway.
Changing Trends in Winter Weather
Pidwirny also noted an interesting trend: December is now the coldest month of the ski season, replacing January. However, this isn’t because December is getting colder—instead, January, February, and March are warming, a trend likely linked to global warming.
“December hasn’t changed much since the ’90s, but there’s been a clear increase in temperatures during the later winter months,” he explained.
Get Ready for a Snowy December!
With a strong La Niña forecast, early season snowfall, and more on the way, this winter is shaping up to be one for the books. Fernie skiers and riders, it’s time to dust off your gear, plan your trips, and get ready to carve into a snowy December. Let the countdown to opening day begin!
Source Michael Pidwirny
Photo FAR
